Day 3777

I have a feeling that three years from now we'll look back at our current situation as the most colossal overreaction in human history. How did we get here? When British scientist Neil Ferguson published his widely cited Imperial College report predicting that 2.2 million Americans and more than half a million British citizens would die if life as we know it did not shut down for at least 18 months, it caught the attention of politicians around the world. Nobody wanted this kind of devastation on their watch. Even our own president did an about face and radically changed his tune. The country shut down. Ferguson predicted that the demand for ICU beds would be 30 times greater than the available supply and the entire hospital system would collapse. Overnight, convention centers were turned into field hospitals and all the other hospitals stopped doing everything from chemotherapy to brain surgery. The entire hospital system was turned upside down and mobilized to treat the coming surge of coronavirus patients.

A strange thing happened though. After tens of thousands of restaurants, bars, and small businesses shut their doors; after the world economy ground to a screeching halt, Neil Ferguson quietly retracted his predictions. Nevermind, he essentially said. He now feels that the hospital system is well equipped to handle the peak of the epidemic and that British deaths will be closer to 20,000 than the half million he originally predicted. Ferguson never apologized for his wildly inaccurate prediction, but he did say that “We’ll be paying for this year for decades to come.” At least he got that right.

I'm a university brat. I grew up around scientists. I think I learned around the dinner table at a very early age that scientists are not magicians. They are frequently wrong. The scientific method is based on trial and error. You experiment. You learn from your mistakes and eventually you might come up with a solution. Sometimes what you learn is that you started with a false premise.

Do people who are counting on a vaccine to fix this mess realize that the best scientists in the world have never managed to come up with a vaccine for an existing coronavirus? They were never able to come up with an effective vaccine for SARS. To this day there is not a vaccine for the common cold.

There have been some amazing success stories over the years. Polio has been eliminated. Measles has almost been eliminated as well. It took a massive effort to vaccinate the entire world before the polio vaccine was really effective though. Nobody shut down the world while this was happening either. A lot has changed since then. We didn't have a choice about taking the polio vaccine. We all ate the sugar cube. Do you think you could convince everybody to take an unproven vaccine these days? There would be a revolt. We forget that the whole reason for taking vaccines is to speed up the process of building herd immunity. It is not a magic bullet. If everybody doesn't take the vaccine, it doesn't work. It might not work anyway. Most seasonal flu vaccines are only about 50% effective.

We are getting close to the point where the cure is worse than the disease. I think the Chinese knew this all along. With a population of over four billion people, the Chinese government has always been more worried about social unrest than disease. The virus start peaking in China during Lunar New Year Celebrations. Chinese New Year is a huge cultural event that often involves traveling to visit relatives. Rather than forcibly curtailing these activities and risk massive social unrest, the Chinese government let hundreds of thousands of Wuhan residents travel freely around the world for at least a week before mentioning anything about the virus to the rest of us. Do you think this had anything to do with the mess we are facing now? I thought so.

We will never fix this unless we we rediscover honesty. Nobody is honest about anything these days. The Chinese were never honest about the virus in the first place. Our own politicians aren't honest either. Everyone is trying to use the pandemic to score political points. The media is far from honest. You have your truth and I have mine. We all listen to news that supports what we already think. Sadly, nobody believes the news media anyway. We just believe what our friends say on Facebook. It's all a giant clusterfuck. Personally, I don't think what we are doing now is going to work. Maybe three years from now some of you might agree with me.

Chance is today's Dalmatian of the Day

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